Consider that, in 2004, six of the drivers in the top 10 in points after three races went on to grab Chase positions, and that was before the Chase was expanded to 12 competitors for the 2007 season. Jeremy Mayfield (14th after three races), Jimmie Johnson (19th), Mark Martin (20th) and Ryan Newman (21st) all cracked the top 10 after the 26th race, but they're the exception rather than the rule.

In 2005, eight of the top 10 after three races qualified for the Chase, with Jeremy Mayfield and Matt Kenseth as the only interlopers into the final Chase field. In 2006, Dale Earnhardt Jr., rookie Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick rallied to make the Chase, but seven of the drivers who left Las Vegas in the top 10 were still there when the Chase was set at Richmond in September.

Admittedly, expanding the Chase field to 12 drivers appears to have produced greater fluidity in percentage terms. Nevertheless, of the drivers committed to full schedules in 2007, eight of the top 12 after three races also were in the top 12 after 26. The equation excludes Martin, who was first in points after three races but ran a limited schedule last year.

That should be food for thought for such drivers as 2007 championship runner-up Jeff Gordon, who stands 22nd after Sunday's UAW-Dodge 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Only four drivers have come from farther back than that after three races to claim a place in the Chase: Jeremy Mayfield (26th in 2005), Matt Kenseth (28th in 2005), Kurt Busch (23rd in 2007) and Martin Truex Jr. (27th in 2007).

Gordon already has two DNFs this season, compared with one all last year. You can interpret statistics any way you want, but what history says when it comes to the Chase is that the teams that start the season consistently strong are the ones that are likely to end it that way.

Speaking of Gordon, what has happened to the Hendrick Motorsports domination from 2007? This year, it has been more abomination than domination. A combination of mistakes, bad luck and recalcitrant set-ups has the sport's most efficient organization looking like an also-ran.

Johnson's No. 48 Chevy handled in Las Vegas as if it had two sets of left-side tires. Gordon acknowledged that the brutal wreck that eliminated him from the Vegas race -- and simultaneously crippled Kenseth's Ford -- resulted from a mistake on his part, pure and simple.

Casey Mears has been a victim and a weapon so far -- neither intentionally. A crash not of his making cost him a high finish in the Daytona 500. A week later, at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif., Mears hit a wet spot on the two-mile track and caromed off the wall into the path of Earnhardt, his teammate. On Lap 224 Sunday in Las Vegas, Mears spun Brian Vickers, the driver he replaced at Hendrick, but salvaged a 13th-place finish.

Despite the wreck at Fontana, Earnhardt (10th) is the only Hendrick driver in the top 12 in the championship standings. Johnson is 14th, Gordon 22nd and Mears 34th, uncomfortably close to the dividing line between the top 35 in owner points (those locked into race fields) and those outside that crucial number.

Just because Earnhardt is the top driver so far, however, don't rush to anoint him as the top talent at Hendrick just yet. Johnson, after all, is the two-time defending series champion, and Gordon has four titles of his own.

"This is only the third race, man," Earnhardt said, after finishing second to Carl Edwards at Las Vegas. "I don't think you can get a good gauge by that. We've got to go to Bristol and Atlanta, a couple of real racetracks, and, you know, have some finishes there. We'll see how we do."

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